08182017Headline:

Daily Kos: The health care discussion that should happen in the VP debate

There was a poll not that long ago – before the debate – where the conclusion was that Romney’s negative ads against Obama were ineffective because people assumed that Romney was taking Obama out of context, but Obama’s negative ads towards Romney were more effective because people didn’t like Romney.

Then people saw the debate.  And if you were a low-information voter who was just tuning into the campaign, Romney came across as likeable.  

I think that the barrier for Obama’s negative ads is much higher now.  So there is a group of people (the 3% or so of people who shifted their opinion in the last week – meaning a 6-point swing, or less than that if you think the swing was smaller).  These people are persuadable – they did just change their mind.  These people either see Obama as weak, Romney as likeable, or both, based on debate performance or coverage afterwards.

This ad would have been freaking awesome 2 weeks ago.  Now?  I think it will land with a dull thud.  Better to run it – but is there a way to have negative ads that use Romney’s likeability against him?  

One that I want to see is that Romney said he wouldn’t pass abortion law.  Then instead of going just into the past, pointing out that 2 hours later his campaign reversed itself.  Romney will say something out loud to get quoted and look moderate, but then he will call Tony Perkins to assure him everything is fine and it’s just a cover.  Something that gets people not to trust this likeable moderate Republican who was a successful governor (which you would think was the case if all you saw was the one debate.)

Then – after debate #2 when Obama wipes up the floor with Romney, pile on.

Meanwhile – ground game – get our voters to the polls now and get their votes locked in.  Hopefully these 3% who were persuadable aren’t voting early until we get to them to change their minds back.

-Fred

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